Should We Fight ISIS? (1)

In the previous post I gave the opinion that we were more than capable enough to destroy ISIS if we would only decide to fight. I also opined that we actually should fight to destroy them because they are not only an existential threat to the United States, but to western civilization in general. But is this really the case? After all, their resources to fight are very limited. The only artillery and armor they possess is what they have been able to capture from Iraqi and Syrian forces, and resupply of munitions for these weapons is problematical at best. They have no air force. So how can they challenge the mighty west?

There are several important aspects to the question of whether or not we should engage ISIS militarily. The main issues as I see it are these.

1. Does ISIS actually pose a threat to the United States, and how much damage can they do to us?
2. If we fight ISIS, will this commitment open us to attack by other powers? By an attack I do not mean just a military attack.
3. Do we have the capability to destroy ISIS? With this question I am more worried about our economic capability than our military capability.
4. If we are not willing to fight ISIS, who is? Perhaps we can get someone else to do it for us.

Of these questions I think only the first one is completely dispositive. If we answer it by saying that ISIS is indeed a great threat and can do a great amount of damage to us, then I think that we have no other choice than to go to war with them. The answers to the other questions would only condition how we go about it. That does not make the following questions any less important than the first one. Our national survival might well depend on how we answer them, especially the second one.

Because the amount of material to consider is large enough, I will devote a separate post for each question. For the remainder of this post I will take on the first, dispositive question.

So what can ISIS do to us? The President’s view has evolved considerably over the past year and a half or so. On January 27, 2014, he characterized ISIS as a terrorist “jayvee team” that had only local effects in the mideast, and as such it was not much of a threat to the U.S. As time went on, his comments on ISIS reflected increasing concern. By February 11, 2015, he was asking Congress for an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) to allow him to attack ISIS militarily. Nevertheless, his strategy (if we can call it that) does not seem to be working, as can be seen by the loss of the cities Ramadi, Iraq and Palmyra, Syria to ISIS. In addition, ISIS is expanding its presence in Libya and in West Africa.

As ISIS spreads its influence, it can assemble more human and financial assets to use in attacking American citizens, or American government and corporate facilities overseas. Also, if they can gain enough expertise in cyberattacks, they can launch such attacks against the databases of banks, utilities, corporations, and of governments at all levels. They have already launched a small foray of this kind against the Defense Department. If attacks of this nature are successful, it could at worst cause enough financial  damage to cause collapse of the economy for an unknown period of time, and a shutdown of electrical power and possibly other utilities  over large areas. At best they could make life very uncomfortable.

The really nightmarish possibilities, however, are physical attacks against the American public inside the United States. It is very well known that the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada are extremely porous, and can be penetrated with ease. ISIS agents who infiltrate the continental United States and who are willing to spend their lives as human bombs can inflict a horrendous number of civilian casualties. This is not news to ISIS, so in writing this I am not telling them anything they do not already know. They have in fact told us that these kinds of attacks are exactly what they plan to do. (see here and here and here and here) They have also promised to overthrow the U. S. government and raise the black flag of ISIS over the White House. Bluster? Perhaps, but I would suggest that ISIS has earned a lot of credibility in accomplishing what they threaten.

All of these considerations make me think that we have no choice if we wish to survive with minimal casualties among civilians. ISIS is a horrendous threat and we must go to war with them with the intent to completely destroy them.

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