The 2022 Midterm Elections Defied Reality

In my last post, I hopefully looked forward to a red tsunami giving Republicans control of both houses of Congress. I wrote about what Republicans would have to do to fix the myriad ways Democrats have broken American society. With the Biden Administration creating many catastrophes with policies his party generally supported, an electoral backlash seemed inevitable. Yet, it did not happen. Instead, the 2022 midterm elections defied reality.

At the time of this writing, Republicans have failed gaining control of the U.S. Senate. Although a final Democrat majority may not materialize, the worst Democrats will achieve is a 50-50 split. With the Democratic Vice President’s deciding vote, this will give the Democrats’ effective control of the Senate. Republicans have achieved a House majority with an extremely narrow majority, 220-213.

With all the catastrophes the Democratic Party had created, political reality appeared to dictate a gigantic red wave in the midterms. Consider the list of those disasters.

• Progressive Democrats’ divisive culture wars and “cancel culture”. This includes a war on free speech for their ideological opponents.
• A war on economic production created by higher taxes, restrictions on energy production, and the “Green New Deal.” This includes the largest inflation in 40 years, created by a massive increase in the money supply to finance government spending.
• An opening of our southern border with Mexico. This allows Mexican cartels to control that border, not the U.S. government. In particular, it allows the cartels to smuggle huge numbers of illegal immigrants. It also permits them to flood the U.S. with illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, that are killing a large number of Americans (107,375 in 2021).
• A progressive proclivity to encourage crime by reducing prosecutions, sentences, and by defunding police departments.
• An inconsistent foreign policy, epitomized by Biden’s idiotic and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, which encourages our foreign adversaries and greatly discourages our allies.

The fact the expected Republican tsunami became a tiny ripple defies all these realities. That this happened even though more Republicans voted than Democrats deepens the mystery. The Cook Political Report states that 50.7% of the votes were cast by Republicans, and only 47.7% of the votes were given by Democrats. Why, then, did the red wave not materialize?

Theories on Why the Republican Tsunami Became a Tiny Ripple

There are a number of ideas attempting to explain why the expected red tsunami was converted into a tiny ripple. Most of them have some saliency. The fact most races were very close means even small perturbations in the vote could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Let us first take a look at these explanations to see why the midterm elections defied reality. I will list them from what I consider the least important or likely to the most important.

1. Election Fraud

There is no obvious evidence for voter fraud in the 2022 midterms. Nevertheless, in many very closely run races, even a very small and undetectable amount of fraud could have a marginal effect. This is the least likely explanation.

2. The Supreme Court’s Decision Removing Any Federal Role on Abortion

A somewhat more likely reason for the red wave’s failure is the the Supreme Court’s nullification of Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. That repeal removed a federally insured right to abortion at any stage of pregnancy. Since the Supreme Court majority consisted of Justices appointed by Republicans, particularly by Donald Trump, voters who favored abortion rights blamed the Republican Party.

Nevertheless, the Dobbs decision did not outlaw abortion. What it did do is remove the federal government from enforcing abortion rights. State governments are now allowed to regulate abortions in any way their electorates will support. Most state governments that have legislated abortion regulation have merely limited the pregnancy period during which abortions are permitted. This is a position supported by a majority of the American people. Consider the bar chart below provided by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Perusing this chart, you can see 65% of Americans believe abortions should be either illegal in most cases or in all cases during the second trimester. During the third trimester, 80% of Americans would make abortions illegal in most or all cases.

Nevertheless, that still leaves 34% who believe abortions should be legal in most or all cases during the second trimester, and 19% who support abortions in the third trimester in most or all cases during the third trimester. In close run political races, these supporters could have a measurable effect.

3. Donald Trump is Losing Support of the Republican Electorate

An even more likely theory is a loss of Donald Trump’s support among Republicans and independents. This appears to be due not so much to the Trump administration’s policies, but to his toxic narcissism. Republicans have generally liked his policies, but see his toxic personality as alienating a large fraction of the electorate.

Although Trump had a great record in getting his recommended candidates nominated, his support appears to have been the kiss of death to his candidates in the general election.

4. Republicans Erred with their Early-Voting Strategy

The most salient explanation for why the midterm elections defied reality is a faulty Republican strategy for early voting. Conspiracy theories by some Republicans (particularly those associated with Trump) held that once early ballots were cast, Democrat fraudsters had time to manipulate voting systems to rig the vote for their candidates. Republicans were urged to vote in person on Election Day, or if they had received a mailed ballot, they should hold onto it and submit it at a polling place on Election Day.

Early-voting maximizes the time over which a party can get all of its partisans to vote. Restricting voting to Election Day means any problems the voter experiences (illness, long wait-times at the polls, personal problems, etc.) can cause the voter to not vote at all. The change in the voting results need not be very large at all to make a real difference in very close-run races.

A great example of this dynamic can be found in the Pennsylvania senatorial contest between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman. On Election Day, Oz drew about 500,000 more votes than Fetterman. However, Fetterman’s early-vote total (868,000) was more than four times Oz’s early-votes. The result was a lopsided 655,000 vote advantage for Fetterman. The one debate Fetterman had with Oz on October 25 was just two weeks before Election Day. That debate showed Fetterman was greatly impaired intellectually by a previous stroke. Even leftist supporters had to admit Fetterman’s performance was very painful to watch. Time correspondent Charlotte Alter wrote “so far this is a disaster for Fetterman. I spoke to Fetterman recently, and I expected him to be very bad tonight. But he was much much worse than I expected (and much worse than in our one-on-one conversation.).”

Early voting in Pennsylvania varied by county in the state, but generally was available 50 days (1.7 months) prior to Election Day. Had the Oz- Fetterman debate occurred 2 months prior to Election Day, John Fetterman almost certainly would have been defeated.

Since the Democratic Party urged its partisans to vote as early as possible, Republicans gave too much advantage to their adversaries if they did not do the same.

With these explanations, what are the consequences of the 2022 midterm elections’ denial of reality?

The Consequences and Why the Midterm Elections Defy Reality

One important consequence is Democrats are taking the midterm results as vindication for their policies. In fact, this may very well be the most important result. Joe Biden almost certainly will not change any of his approaches to problems as a result. The Democrats will continue their war on fossil fuels, limiting the ability of the economy to produce and distribute goods. The deleterious effects of their energy policies is guaranteed by the chart below.

Democrats will continue their divisive culture war and their attempts to limit free speech for their political and ideological adversaries. They will continue their open-border policies allowing Mexican cartels to smuggle huge numbers of illegal immigrants and drugs (most especially Chinese-produced fentanyl) across the U.S. border. So far in 2022, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) says they have encountered 2,150,370 illegal immigrants and have seized over 10,000 pounds of deadly fentanyl. Depending on body size, approximately 2 mg is enough to kill a person. In 2021, approximately 71,000 people died from fentanyl overdoses. Fentanyl overdoses are the greatest cause of death among young adults aged 18-45. Fentanyl causes more deaths in this age group than COVID-19, cancer, heart disease, and all accidents.

Unfortunately, controlling only the House of Representatives, the Republicans will not have the power to repeal what the Democrats have already enacted. For example, the economic disaster that is the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act will continue to destroy the economy.

Nevertheless, control of the House hands to Republicans a powerful weapon to check Democratic power grabs: the power of the purse. The U.S. Constitution gives us the following two excerpts, which together define the House’s power of the purse.

All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills.

U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 7, clause 1

No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law; and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.

U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 9, clause 7

Together these two quotations imply the federal government can not spend any money for a particular program unless the House of Representatives agrees to it. Now that Republicans control the House, they can use it to blackmail the Biden Administration and other Democrats into supporting some of their priorities.

Foe example, Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) has told his supporters, “Republicans, we need to have a fight over the border wall. And we need to be willing to say to Joe Biden: ‘You don’t get another dime for your priorities unless you do your job and enforce and secure the Southern border.’”

There are other important consequences. The Republican Red Wave just barely fizzled out. If just a few of the reasons for its failure were removed, or if the American electorate became even more disenchanted with Democratic policies, the next election could indeed be a wave large enough to drown progressive Democrats.

Consider the logic of recent events. The Democrats consider the election results to be a vindication of their policies. As a result, Democratic politicians will not significantly change how they are attempting to change American society. This is especially true about how they are trying to put the American economy more under government control. However, Democratic policies defy the social reality of its chaotic nature. As a result, the American economy will continue to decay and public despair over worsening economic conditions will grow.

Eventually, social reality cannot and will not be ignored.

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