Sitrep on Russia’s Syrian Campaign
Russian T-90A Main Battle Tank
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Vitaly V. Kuzman
Russian forces are arriving rapidly around the airport the Russians are building just south of the Syrian city of Latakia. Rapidly enough to justify a situation report after just four days since the last sitrep. Reuters has reported and American officials have verified that six tanks of the type shown above have been delivered at that incipient airbase. According to U.S. defense officials, Russian heavy equipment is arriving at the airbase at a rate of about two cargo planes per day. At this rate Pentagon officials believe the airbase will be ready to host Russian fighter aircraft by the end of the month.
In addition to the armor, the Russians are also reported to have delivered three dozen armored personnel carriers, and approximately 15 artillery pieces of an unspecified type. I have heard one unverified report that a brigade of infantry (approximately 4400 soldiers) had also arrived. When asked about all this, the Russians said the equipment was for delivery to the Syrians, and the soldiers were to be advisors to the Syrian Army. According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Russian Army is providing some serious training and logistical support to the Syrian Army. He also said discussion of direct Russian military intervention is “so far premature”. He also did not rule it out.
Now, what are the chances Russia has sent all that equipment to be turned over to the Syrian Army, and the Russian military personnel are just there to train Syrian Army soldiers? That is a conceivable possibility. Much of the equipment and Russian soldiers might be used just for local defense of the airfield being built. That is a second possibility. However, from the reporting of Robert Fisk of the British newspaper The Independent, which we have commented upon before, the Syrian Army is on the verge of disintegration, hit by battle losses and desertions. Would Russia risk all the eggs they are putting in the Latakia basket just to train and supply a disintegrating army? That should strain anyone’s credulity. Remember, the neighboring province of Idlib was lost to ISIS just last week. The more eggs they place in the fragile Latakia basket, the more likely a third possibility becomes: that they shall engage ISIS directly on the ground with a combined arms team of infantry, artillery, armor, and air power.
So far, in theater U.S. forces and Russian forces are not talking to each other, which is tolerable so long as the Russians do not engage in significant combat. However, if they should move against ISIS, there will be a very real need to communicate to make sure Russian ground troops are not anywhere near where the U.S. is dropping bombs, or that the Russians do not engage in any “friendly” fire with our allies in the area such as the Kurdish Peshmerga. These possibilities are at least bothering the Russians, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the U.S. about a growing risk of “unintended incidents” if the U.S. and Russian forces did not cooperate with each other. This statement by Lavrov should heighten suspicions Russia is intending to engage ISIS directly. When a CENTCOM spokesman, Air Force Col. Pat Ryder was asked by Defense One reporter Molly O’Toole about possible friendly fire incidents without “deconfliction”, he referred the question to the State Department, probably because he thought it a political hot potato. State Department spokesman John Kirby wanted no part of it, however, stating “You have to talk to DOD about air coordination over the skies of Syria. That is not a State Department function.” Apparently, State and Defense are not on the same page.
In fact, this sudden direct involvement of the Russian Army in Syria has caught the Obama administration totally by surprise, as they have been caught so often in the past. The administration is very unhappy with Russia working so hard to keep Bashar al-Assad in power, with Secretary of State John Kerry warning Lavrov that continued support for Assad “risks exacerbating and extending the conflict.” Kerry must be confused about what conflict is important now. He can only be referring to the civil war conflict between the Assad regime and the by now almost non-existent Syrian rebels, rather than the conflict between ISIS and everyone else in the region. Certainly, a serious Russian military campaign against ISIS would be much more likely to decisively finish the war with ISIS than any of the pinpricks on ISIS the U.S. is delivering. President Obama in a statement at Ft. Meade, Maryland last Friday said “We are going to be engaging Russia to let them know that you can’t continue to double down on a strategy that’s doomed to failure.”
It is very unclear to me how Obama can think Russia’s efforts to keep Assad in power are doomed to failure. The indigenous revolt against Assad that Obama refused to assist a couple of years ago has since been greatly attrited by the combined actions of the Syrian Army and ISIS. ISIS is now conquering much of the area once held by Syrian rebels, in particular the province of Idlib. Once the Russians destroy ISIS, there will be no real force existing to oppose Assad. Obama would do better to worry about what to do once Russia has conquered Syria and, along with Iran, holds Assad as a puppet.
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