Is China a Threat?

Is China a threat to the United States? In two recent posts, The Growing Threat of Russia and The Purposes of Iran, we have noted how China is in a de facto alliance with two states increasingly hostile to the United States and Western Europe, Russia and Iran. In fact China has proposed a formal defense pact between Russia, Iran and China. This fact all by itself, although worrisome, does not mean that China will necessarily become a hostile opponent of the United States. So should we worry? 

Well, for one thing, there are all those cyber attacks traced back to China on major and sensitive U.S. computer systems. Below is a declassified, once classified secret map obtained by NBC showing locations of Chinese cyber attacks on U.S. computers over the past five years.

Each red dot represents a single Chinese cyber attack on private and government computer systems that succeeded in stealing corporate and military secrets. These included data on electrical power, telecommunications, and internet backbone infrastructure. They also stole sensitive information on U.S. military and civilian air traffic control systems. Also, the Department of Homeland Security identified nine major cyber attacks seeking the personal data of millions of Americans. James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, has stated the leading suspect for one such hack on the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) was China.

It would appear China is not only seeking corporate proprietary information for making Chinese companies more internationally competitive, but they are also actively seeking ways to disrupt or destroy sensitive systems in the case of war with the U.S. The possibility of cyber-warfare with China is a matter of increasing concern to the Pentagon.

Another reason for believing China will become increasingly hostile comes from their operations in the South China Sea. The Chinese have for some time been acting as if the South China Sea were their own private lake over which they have sovereignty.

They have claimed sovereignty over just about all of the islands in the South China Sea, most particularly all of the island grouping known as the Spratly Islands. Since Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines all have competing claims, the chances for armed conflict over these islands are very significant.

One vital U.S. interest is the freedom of the seas through the South China Sea (also see here). Every year more than half of the world’s merchant fleet goes through various choke points in this sea. If China should ever try to enforce a claim to the Sea as its territorial waters, they would have their own choke-hold on world maritime merchant trade. This is not something the U.S. could easily ignore. According to the Business Insider, the oil transported through the Malacca Strait and passing through the South China Sea is three times the oil going through the Suez Canal and fifteen times the amount transiting the Panama Canal.

In order to bolster their military presence in the South China Sea, China has been building artificial islands to act as unsinkable aircraft carriers, as well as additional justifications for their claims of sovereignty over the area. The more they build, the harder they will be to dislodge. From all of this evidence, it is hard to believe that China is not expecting military resistance from one of the aggrieved parties to its claims on the South China Sea.

Yet another cause for concern is the tie with Iran and its support of islamic terrorism. We discussed in a very brief way the economic ties between China and Iran in The Purposes of Iran. China may well be one of the biggest winners with the P5+1 Nuclear deal with Iran, because of the opening of trade with Iran. This trade will not only provide profits for the Chinese, but also provide needed income for the Iranians to support their islamic terrorist allies. If a more formal alliance between Russia, China, and Iran comes about, we can also expect more military cooperation.

Finally, there is the way in which hostility towards the United States and its allies is building in the Chinese government (see here and here and here and here and here and here and here). All of the evidence cited in this post, from the alliance between China, Russia, and Iran; to the many hacks by the Chinese of U.S. computer systems preparing the Chinese for cyber war; to the claiming of the South China Sea as their property, perhaps to deny freedom of the sea there to others; to the growing hostility the Chinese government projects to the U.S. and its allies; all of this presages increased hostility  between China and the U.S. and its allies.

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