A Pyrrhic Victory for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party
One month after the U.S. general election of 2020, the probable presidential winner appears to be Joe Biden. To be sure, Republicans are crying foul over possible massive electoral fraud in states controlled by Democrats. However, absent large amounts of evidence demonstrating such fraud, Biden will be the next President. Does this mean Democrats will be able to impose a more socialist control over us? Instead, their success at the polls increasingly looks like a pyrrhic victory for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.
What the Election Results Tell Us
Other than the apparent election of Joe Biden, there was precious little for Democrats to cheer about. Republicans made significant gains in the House of Representatives, and seem likely to retain control of the Senate. Longer-term trouble for Democrats was promised by the loss of many local and state governments to the Republicans.
That there was no blue wave came as a great shock to progressives. Opinion polls had led Democrats to believe they would bury their Republican opponents.
Before the elections, Democrats held a majority in the House of 232 seats to the 197 held by Republicans, one by a Libertarian, with five open seats. As of November 28, Democrats hold 222 seats and Republicans have 207 with 6 seats still to be decided. As of now, it appears Democrats will continue to have a majority, albeit slimmer than before the election. Republicans have the edge in several of the undecided races. The two parties could conceivably end up separated by less than 10 seats.
After GOP Senator Dan Sullivan clinched reelection in Alaska, Republicans will hold at least 50 seats in the Senate. Control of the Senate will be determined by January 5 runoffs for the two senate seats in Georgia. If the Republicans win just one of those seats (both now held by the GOP), they will retain control of the Senate. In the race of GOP Senator David Perdue against his Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, Perdue had received 49.7% of the vote versus Ossoff’s 48% in the general election with 2.3% garnered by other candidates. In the other Georgia senate race, the runoff will be between GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock. In the general election, Warnock received 32.9 % of the vote, Loeffler had 25.9%, with Doug Collins (R) receiving 20%, Deborah Jackson (D) 6.6%, and other candidates 14.6%. Collectively, the two Republicans running for Loeffler’s seat received 45.9% of the vote with the two Democrats garnering 39.5%
Republicans can hope that the prospect of far-left wing transformations of American institutions will motivate Georgia voters to reelect the two Republican incumbents. However, even if Democrats flip the two Georgia Senate seats, they still are not assured of Senate control over many issues. Democratic Senator Joseph Manchin from West Virginia has publically proclaimed he will not vote for many leftist policies favored by his party. Hear it from Sen. Manchin himself in the Fox News / YouTube video below.
In particular, Manchin pledges he would never vote to pack the courts nor to end the Senate filibuster. Other policies he would not support are defunding the police, Medicare for All, repeal of the Trump tax cuts, or any proposal to make the U.S. a more socialist country. However, just by opposing the elimination of the filibuster, Manchin has given the Republicans all they need to block any Democratic legislation.
Democratic Party Losses in State Governments
A longer-term threat to the Democratic Party arises from their loss of many state and local governments. After the 2020 elections, Republicans will have absolute control over state government in 22 states. That means they will control the governorship and both houses of the state legislature. Twenty of those states were already under Republican control; but in Montana, Republicans flipped the governorship, and in New Hampshire, they captured both legislative chambers to gain total control of both states. On the other side, Democrats will hold a similar unified control of only 15 states. Only 11 states will have divided government where both parties will have to cooperate with each other to get anything done. In Arizona and Alaska, control of state government is still to be determined.
How all of this matters is that state GOP-controlled governments will have an advantage in redistricting Congressional seats (aka gerrymandering). Since almost the beginning of the nation, gerrymandering has been a time-honored practice of both parties. Although many have deplored the implicit unfairness of the practice, the Supreme Court has ruled it constitutional under most situations. For the coming decade, the political power of the Democratic Party will be diluted because of their net losses of state governments.
Another reason why these results might be a disaster for the Democratic Party is that more GOP-controlled states would provide more safe-havens for both companies and individuals from the blue states. Already there is a flood of refugees from the blue states to the red. They are fleeing higher taxes, higher costs of living, greater economic regulation, destructive riots, and less domestic security from weakened police departments. The fact that the Democrat-controlled states are losing their tax bases will inevitably lead to their financial collapse. That would also mean a tremendous erosion of their political and economic power.
A Divided Democratic Party
One problem for the Democrats is the deal Biden had to make with Bernie Sanders in order to become the Democrats’ presidential candidate. Just prior to the Democratic National Convention that nominated Joe Biden, Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders agreed to a “unity agreement.” Biden agreed to it to gain the support of Sander’s leftist supporters.
AP Photo / Elise Amendola
While that agreement does not explicitly endorse some of Sanders’ most radical desires, such as Medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal, it comes close. If Biden does not honor his commitments to Sanders and his socialist followers, they could revolt and oppose Biden’s policies. Such a revolt would hurt the Democratic Party in two different ways: Not only would it make the institution of Biden’s policies difficult, but a Democratic civil war might ensure their defeat in the next election.
Already the Democratic majority in the new House of Representatives appears to be razor thin. In the Senate, the Republicans will either have a bare majority or the Democrats will have the same number of seats as the GOP. Of course in the latter case, the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris would cast the deciding vote in her role as the President of the Senate. In either body, if a significant number of Sanders’ followers oppose a Biden-backed bill, they in combination with Republicans could make the bill dead on arrival.
On the other hand if Biden supports Sanders and his followers, it would be more moderate Democratic legislators who would rebel. Although a moderate Democratic politician is almost a contradiction in terms, there are a few. One thinks of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in the Senate, and Rep. Abigail Spangberger (D-VA), Rep. Marc Veasey (D-TX), and Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) in the House, among others. Again with party majorities for both parties being so slim in both houses of Congress. a Biden alliance with his party’s Left could lead Democratic moderates to kill Biden’s policies with the help of the GOP.
Joe Biden’s Weaknesses
Finally, one has to consider Joe Biden’s well publicized weakness in putting together coherent sentences when under stress. The more uncharitable among Biden’s critics suggest this weakness is evidence of incipient senility. Below is a YouTube video that is a composite of Biden’s speeches illustrating his frequent incoherence.
There are alternative explanations other than dementia for Biden’s incoherence as shown in the video below.
Nevertheless, whatever the explanation for Biden’s incoherence, the incoherence itself points to an inability to think clearly under stress. Considering that the U.S. Presidency has to be one of the most stressful jobs on Earth, one has to worry about what he will decide when faced with international military confrontations. What will Biden decide about international trade agreements when the interests of domestic working class families conflict with international economic and political elites? Will he recognize the just claims of the populist revolts, or will he side with the international elites?
The Pyrrhic Victory of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party
The 2020 elections will almost certainly end up being a serious defeat for the Democratic Party in the long-term. Even with the one dubious victory they had with the apparent election of Joe Biden, the Democratic Party faces backlash from the electorate. This will be especially true if Biden supports Bernie Sanders’ allies and policies. As evidenced by progressives’ loss of state and local governments, most of the electorate looks askance at leftist policies. Most people tend to look poorly on the defunding and weakening of local police. They also seem to dislike socialist controls on the economy, higher taxes (especially in the blue states!), and the destruction of their businesses by leftist rioters. (Take note, Antifa and Black Lives Matter!) All of these problems in the blue states should motivate a flood of individuals and businesses fleeing to the red states. As they flee, they will take both economic and political power with them to the red states. Do not be surprised if a variety of Democratic controlled states collapse financially in the next few years due to a loss of their tax base.
In addition, the recent elections have created a great distrust among the Republican electorate of the fairness of the elections. A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll has found trust in the election system plummeting among Republicans, even while surging among Democrats. Some 70% of Republican voters say they think the 2020 election was not “free and fair.” In contradistinction, some 90% of Democrats thought the election fair. Of those who thought the election was not fair, 78% thought the great expansion in mail-in voting caused wide-spread voter fraud. Seventy-two percent believed the ballots had been tampered with. This great disparity between Republicans and Democrats can only lead to the increased polarization of the American people. Joseph Biden has aspired to be the president of all the people, Democrats and Republicans alike. Good luck with that! It is much more likely that most Republicans will view Biden as an illegitimate, unacceptable president — just as Democrats considered Donald Trump throughout his administration. Look for the rise of a “Never Biden!” movement.
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