Should Red and Blue States in the U.S. Get a Divorce?

The plot above shows a deeply divided nation. What it displays are the red states dominated by Republicans, the blue states led by Democrats, and the purple states ruled by neither. It was determined by looking at the state results of the presidential election for the past four presidential elections. However, given the results of the 2022 midterm elections, there has been one important change to it: Florida has gone from purple to decisively red. The truth revealed by the plot begs the question whether the red and blue state should get a divorce.

Although there appear to be more red states than blue, the blue states are generally much more populous. The result has been political power very evenly divided between the parties. Because both parties find getting anything accomplished to be increasingly impossible, from time-to-time some have suggested the U.S. should get a national divorce and split into two different blue and red countries

Most recently, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), a somewhat crazy and incendiary individual, has put out the call for divorce. On her personal Twitter account, she asserted “we need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.” You will note the seeming contradiction between shrinking the federal government and separating the red and blue states. Should we secede into two different ideologically competing countries, would we still have a common federal government? Or is she only talking about the new federal government for the red nation?

She added her idea is supported by everyone to whom she talks. As reasons for a national divorce, she cites the “sick and disgusting woke culture issues” and the Democratic Party’s “America Last policies.” “We are done,” she says.

The Idea of a National Divorce Is Surprisingly Popular

Despite the almost impossible barriers to a national divorce (more on this later), it is a surprisingly popular idea. Even some left-wing progressives have favored it. In March 2017, The New Republic published an article proposing a “Bluexit.” It declared, “it’s time for blue states and cities to effectively abandon the American national enterprise, as it is currently constituted. Call it the New Federalism. Or Virtual Secession. Or Conscious Uncoupling—though that’s already been used. Or maybe Bluexit. … We won’t formally secede, in the Civil War sense of the word. We’ll still be a part of the United States, at least on paper. But we’ll turn our back on the federal government in every way we can, just like you’ve been urging everyone to do for years, and devote our hard-earned resources to building up our own cities and states.” That is, the article was proposing a new federalism, where each state would go its own way.

A University of Virginia Center for Politics poll in 2021 showed large fractions of both Republicans and Democrats wanted their states to secede from the Union. The poll asked respondents whether they agreed with the following statement: “The situation in America is such that I would favor [Blue/Red] states seceding from the union to form their own separate country.” To this, 52% of Trump voters agreed (25% disagreed), while 41% of Biden voters agreed (18% disagreed). A majority of Republican voters and a plurality of Democrats would be willing to secede. A mutual secession from each other has become a mainstream idea in the United States.

A polarization this deep is not something any politician could afford to ignore. Yet, how would they respond? So far, the Biden Administration would rather ignore the divisions. When forced to pay attention to our disunity, their only reaction is to castigate “MAGA Republicans.”

Why a Simple Divorce Is Crazy and Impossible

Yet, as a practical matter, a simple national divorce into two separate countries is an impossibility. How would the assets of the current federal government be divided between the two new nations? Most especially, how would the armed forces be split between them? How many naval vessels, missiles, nuclear warheads, tanks, and aircraft of various types would go to each new country. And what about the soldiers, sailors, and airmen? Would each serviceman be allowed to join the country of his choice? The other servants of the federal government would also have to be given a choice.

Clearly, each of the two new countries would be weaker than the original United States, both economically and militarily. Would the two new countries become irresistible targets for the new axis countries of China, Russia and Iran?

Even if all the practical problems could be solved, the relations between the two new countries would be unstable. For some time, blue states have been hemorrhaging both people and businesses to the red states. Using change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service, Deane Biermeier and Samantha Allen in a recent Forbes article identified the 10 top states people left in 2021. They are listed below together with their net number of households lost.

1. California: over 101 thousand households
2. New York: Over 75 thousand households
3. Illinois: About 29 thousand households
4. Pennsylvania: Over 18 thousand households
5. Massachusetts: 15,489 households
6. Washington: Over 13 thousand households
7. Colorado: 12,145 households
8. Indiana: About 12 thousand households
9. Michigan: Almost 11 thousand households
10. Wisconsin: 10 thousand households

With the exception of Indiana, which is a red state; and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are lightly blue; these are all solidly blue states.

So, where are all these people fleeing blue states going? The top ten states gaining residents together with the net number of households gained in 2021 are listed below.

1. Texas: Over 12,700 households
2. Florida: unknown
3. South Carolina: About 10,000 households
4. North Carolina: About 9,000 households
5. Georgia: Over 5,000 households
6. Tennessee: Over 4,500 households
7. Nevada: Over 3,100 households
8. Maine: Over 2,500 households
9. Delaware: Almost 2,200 households
10. Idaho: Nearly 1,800 households

Nevada, Maine, and Delaware are solidly blue states, while North Carolina and Georgia are light red. All of the rest are solidly red states. You should notice the numbers of households attracted to red states among the top ten are somewhat smaller than the number abandoning the blue states. The diaspora from Democrat-controlled states is over a wider area than the top ten gaining states.

Nevertheless, the picture should be clear. Democratic states are repelling people, while red states are attracting a large fraction of blue state refugees. The two red states of Texas and Florida have 15% of the U.S. population. Yet 70% of the 1.2 million U.S. population growth between July 2021 and July 2022 happened in those two states. What draws people from the blue states to the red states? The list of reasons includes much greater economic opportunity, lower taxes, affordable housing, higher standards of living, and lower crime rates. In particular, there is a very strong relationship between the amount of economic freedom a state provides its people and net migration inflows and outflows. This is shown in the scatter plot below of net migration versus economic freedom in 2022. For me, it is an eye-opening plot.

Now, in light of all this data, suppose the blue and red states secede from each other. Suppose they formed two separate and independent countries. The causes of migration discussed above would not disappear. Indeed, the losses of population and economic power for the new blue country could rapidly become intolerable for it. If the threat to it became existential, such losses might even be a casus belli between the newly formed countries.

Nevertheless, One Kind of National Divorce Is Inevitable

The New Republic’s proposal for a new and reinvigorated federalism would appear to be the only nonviolent way to effect a simple national divorce. In addition to their “Bluexit,” there would also be a “Redexit.” Because it is simple and requires little drastic change in the federal government, such a renewed federalism is almost certainly inevitable. In fact, we can see it beginning already with the migration of people and businesses away from the blue states toward the red. The evolution of the divorce would likely be very different from the way the New Republic imagined it.

To satisfy both sides in the ideological conflict, a reinvigorated federalism would mean much stronger, more independent state governments, and a much weaker, smaller federal government. The stronger state governments would allow both Democrats and Republicans to arrange their separate societies to their own liking. The weaker federal government would prevent Republicans from dictating to the Democratic states through the regulatory state. In fact, the erosion of the federal government’s regulatory state would be the primary way in which the federal government could be easily weakened to allow the blue and red to coexist separately. It might be the only way. Such an evolution is precisely the way so-called “conservatives” (really neoliberals) would like to see society develop. Progressive Democrats would have to console themselves it would at least keep them independent from Republicans. Since we can already see many people migrating to states that suit them, this road to national divorce is probably inevitable.

However, this kind of evolution is also ultimately destructive to progressive societies in the blue states. All of the motivations for people to migrate from the blue states to the red would still exist. Economic and political power would continue to drain from states dominated by progressive policies. That economic and political power would be accumulated by the red states holding policies derived from the age of enlightenment. Ultimately, the biggest argument progressives have is with the nature of reality itself.

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